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Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Fourth Quarter 2021 Review

The highly anticipated ‘post-pandemic economic boom’ took a pause in Q3, as yet another Covid-19 surge led consumers to retrench in July and August.

The upshot for investors, however, is that macroeconomic headwinds all appear to be temporary, and none appear significant enough to derail the growth trajectory of the U.S. for the balance of 2021.

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Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Third Quarter 2021 Review

The U.S. economy is clearly on strong footing. Strong spending, accelerating demand, and tight inventories are likely to keep inflation as a headline risk, and continued strength in the jobs market and wage pressures may motivate the Federal Reserve to shift into monetary tightening mode sooner than later—at first by tapering bond purchases, and eventually by raising interest rates.

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Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Second Quarter 2021 Review

U.S. stocks marched higher in the first quarter, with the S&P 500 pushing through 17 new highs and reaching 4,000 for the first time. “Risk-on” sentiment is being driven by improving economic data, a sense that the pandemic is nearing its end in the US, and what is perhaps the greatest fiscal stimulus experiment in the country’s history.

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Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

First Quarter 2021 Review

The S&P 500 index priced-in the pandemic-fueled recession in record time, but it also rallied sharply off the bottom in given hyper-accommodative monetary policy, massive fiscal spending, and anticipation of a strong growth rebound sometime in 2021. In spite of all the challenges 2020 presented, U.S. stocks rose +18.4% for the year.

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