Third Quarter 2025 Review

Markets rallied in Q2 not because risks vanished, but because the worst-case-scenarios on trade did not materialize.

Indeed, as headlines warned of trade wars, inflation, and fiscal fallout, economic fundamentals quietly held firm. Employment remained strong, inflation stayed in check, and corporate earnings got a boost from new fiscal stimulus.

In our view, these fundamental forces—not tariff-focused headlines—are shaping the market outlook.