Fourth Quarter 2024 Review
Stocks opened the quarter on a volatile note, but fortunately the selling pressure did not last long.
The S&P 500 index charted a “w-shaped” recovery, which we attribute to the strong earnings and economic fundamentals we referenced in last quarter’s letter. Stocks rallied to finish the quarter in positive territory, with gains across the size and style spectrum. The S&P 500 index finished the third quarter with a +5.9% gain and is up over +30% in the past twelve months.
Looking ahead, key U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals today point to solid overall conditions:
U.S. annualized GDP growth of 2.5% in 2023, with 1.6% growth in Q1 2024 and 3.0% (third estimate) in Q2 2024
Inflation at 2.2% (August headline PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
Unemployment rate at 4.1%
10-year U.S. Treasury bond at 3.74% (as of September 30)
This is essentially a “goldilocks” setup, which is also being accompanied by interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve.